“Nach dem Spiel ist vor dem Spiel.”
“After the game is before the game.”
It’s a well-known phrase in Germany, coined by World Cup-winning manager Sepp Herberger, and it nicely sums up how I’ve felt since Arsenal comfortably beat PSV Eindhoven in midweek. I really did enjoy Wednesday but come Thursday morning there was just one thing on my mind.
I’m on my way home for Sunday’s derby as a write this and, naturally, I’m struggling to think of much else. So I thought I might as well jot all my thoughts on the game down here as they race through my head, sort them from back to front and see where we end up.
Turns out I’ve finished this and there’s still over 24 hours to kick-off. Not what I wanted.
David Raya is surely going to play
Thankfully my XI predictions have not been documented anywhere (except perhaps in the Arseblog preview podcasts) this season and I’m at the point where I'm now expecting to be surprised by something Arteta does.
In each of the last two games, the surprise came in goal. Nobody expected Raya to start against Everton and I think most thought Ramsdale would be thrown a PSV-shaped bone in midweek. Nope. Why? I can talk about the less tangible things - I think Raya is at least as good a shot-stopper and is better (read: calmer under pressure and more adventurous) with the ball at his feet. If you want actual data points, Jake Entwistle has you covered:
Interesting, right? I feel like when he arrived Ramsdale did a lot more work claiming the ball (remember Burnley away when he came into the side?) and slicing through the pitch with long, flat passes than we’ve seen from him lately. Raya does plenty of both. The accuracy of his long passing is scary and he has that cutting sidewinder technique nailed.
I think Arteta has a new number one and I’m fine with that.
More on how Raya’s long passing can help us in this particular game in a bit.
PSV as a proxy?
It’s hard not to feel like Wednesday’s game is the most indicative approach and performance of the season when trying to guess what things will look like on Sunday.
Don’t get me wrong, there are huge differences. Tottenham will tuck the fullbacks in and compared to PSV, Spurs are better tactically, technically and physically.
But the similarities still exist, especially compared to any other game we’ve played so far this season. PSV were the first team we played who wanted to have possession and territory (in the first half against us Manchester United had the former but in their own third). Peter Bosz’s side (optimistically and/or naively, I don’t mind how you want to view it) pressed high and Arsenal cut through them, reaching the halfway line and finding opportunities to attack three on three (or similar) repeatedly. I’d wager situations like the one one below (leading up to Trossard’s goal) occurred more or less as many times on Wednesday as in our other games this season put together.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see similar situations on Sunday and that would be fantastic.
Tottenham’s wide centre-backs
Not wide centre-backs like the two on the outside of a back three, but a normal pair of centre-backs who have to defend out wide.
With the fullbacks tucking into midfield to create what is more or less a 2-3-5 shape in possession, Tottenham’s centre-backs can be found defending on the touchline when an opposition team breaks. It’s by design - Postecoglou is happy to have the defenders out there - but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a trade-off. Arsenal do this too but only really on one side, or one side at a time at least, with Gabriel or Saliba found defending wide. It’s a more extreme the way it happens with Tottenham and doesn’t always leave two players spare in the middle.
Now we’re back to Raya’s passing. When Arsenal win the ball back, these wide areas could be key and Raya’s accuracy could come in handy if quick enough to catch Spurs out before they’re back in their regular defensive shape. Saka taking on Van de Ven, Trossard running at Romero, Arsenal with the chance to get Gabriel Jesus one-on-one in the middle. These moments could offer Arsenal’s most threatening attacks if used properly.
Gabriel Jesus is fantastic
That’s all I've got.
He didn’t look quite himself when he was back late last season but things were different on Wednesday. That was the real Gabriel Jesus. A proper nuisance when pressing and when on the ball, swivelling his hips, getting his bum in the way, jinking with the ball, driving at defenders and getting shots away. Between him and Trossard, there was a hell of a lot of close control and ball retention in that team.
I don’t think the added attacking fluency was all Jesus on Wednesday - for me the biggest thing was the quality and the approach of the opposition - but I do think he takes the Arsenal attack to whole new level and it’s fantastic to have him back.
How aggressively will Arsenal press?
Man Utd first half. Control. But control is about where the game happens, not who has the ball. And the team that has the ball can control the game, but the out-of-possession team can too, by making the ball isn’t held in dangerous places.
There is no real proxy for a Postecoglou team playing a game like this, not since he moved to Europe. Tottenham haven’t played anyone good yet this season and Celtic were either a lot more talented (domestically) or a lot less talented (in Europe) than basically everyone they played over the last two years. My take for now is that Postecoglou’s approach basically works or doesn’t depending on which team he has the more talented players. Because they don’t sit back they really can hurt superior teams but if those teams match the intensity of his players they’ll win more often than not.
And I think Arsenal have the more talented team. But I still think it could be really tough and really close.
There won’t be a moment’s rest on Sunday. Even though he’s a coach who wants possession and domination with the ball, Postecoglou wants to entertain above all else. His teams play forwards and they play quickly. Early in his time at Celtic this clip of him screaming at the defenders went viral. You’ll have to click since that bloke who runs what was Twitter stopped what were Tweets from popping out in here and I can't Hyperlink on my phone.
https://x.com/jotaonthewings/status/1665796815134883843?s=46
Tottenham will look to play out but it won’t be like the the Manchester United game, where Onana and the centre-backs just kept passing to each other and Arsenal were happy to let them do so as long as they weren’t getting anywhere. The more aggressive approach with possession and Tottenham’s shape will pose some interesting questions.
There are loads of rotations as the two fullbacks tuck inside. You can’t just man-mark and follow them too narrow, they’ll drag everyone out of position and leave wide open passing lanes to the wingers.
I suspect, when defending, White and Zinchenko will get touch to their respective wingers and Arsenal will look force Tottenham to play to their left (the Arsenal right) i.e the side Ben White defends. But that might be harder with Trossard over Martinelli, who has the pace, the engine, the non-stop running to cover two players at once when the ball is switched and then also support Zinchenko when needed.
It's a lot to think about and I think we’ll see Arsenal look to force errors really high up the pitch before dropping off if and when Tottenham look secure in possession.
A big game for the back four
Tottenham have attacked really well this season.
The wingers are instructed to get chalk on their boots and take on their fullback over and over again. White and Zinchenko could have plenty of work to do.
The striker - probably Heung-min Son - will drop in to link up play but is most dangerous in the box, getting on the end of aggressive, attack-minded passes from Maddison and the work of the wingers. The centre-backs will have to work excellently in tandem. As for Maddison himself …
Declan Rice
… that’ll be Rice’s job defensively, leaning to that right-hand side in front of our defence.
I can't believe I’ve not mentioned him yet. He’s so good that we should be obliged to talk about him constantly, he's also so good we don’t do that because we quickly take him for granted.
Rive covers ground brilliantly when defending but it’s his work with the ball that has impressed most so far this season. He is increasingly calm under pressure, he can drive with the ball, he isn’t afraid of exploiting a longer ball wide (particularly a switch of play) to get the wingers one-on-one. And it’s remarkable just how quickly he seems to have grasped what Mikel Arteta wants at the base of the midfield. I also think he loves the big games and he could dominate this fixture.
Here’s hoping.
And one more thing…
I’m curious - feel free to let me know in the comments - what do you think of Tottenham?
💩