Why aren't Arsenal starting Gabriel?

At least for now

After 73 consecutive Premier Leagues starts, Gabriel has watched the majority of Arsenal’s first two games of the season from the bench. I got why against Nottingham Forest, where his defensive presence wasn’t required, but I was a lot more surprised at Crystal Palace on Monday and rumours that he’s caught the eye of Al-Ittihad started to concern me.

I’m not too worried anymore. Asked about the decision after Monday’s 1-0 win, Mikel Arteta said:

“It’s about the games that we were expecting, what I was expecting, how we wanted to defend and attack and our belief it was the best thing.

“He’s played in both games, he’s helped us to win both games for different reasons. He was really good today, he absolutely dominated the box. He’s going to play a lot of games. That’s the decision sometimes.”

Gabriel is going to play a lot of games for Arsenal this season. He’s probably going to start most of them too. So why has he not started the first two?

I’ve spent a while thinking about this over the last 24 hours and here’s where I’ve arrived:

Let’s just say Arsenal have played a back three. It’s more flexible than that, acting like a back four when we’re defending in our own third and at other times situationally, but for the most part Thomas Partey has tucked into midfield and Arsenal have been left with a back three. So we’ll just say it’s a back three.

It looked like this against Nottingham Forest, with Declan Rice saying on Monday that he played on the left of a midfield diamond in that game, with Thomas Partey inverting to play at the base:

And it looked like this at Selhurst Park, with Partey staying wider and Rice staying deeper. Palace pressed with four men to Forest’s three, so Arsenal built up with five rather than the four-man build-up employed nine days earlier.

Either way, Partey has drifted into midfield in both games and, even if you disagree and we can agree to disagree, Arsenal have ostensibly played with a back three.

The wide centre-backs in that setup have been Ben White on the right, with Jurriën Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu on the left. But they’ve played sort of like fullbacks. And they are all fullbacks, really. They’re fullbacks who can play centre-back.

Just look at where White and Timber/Tomiyasu have actually played in these matches.

(Plots from @markstatsbot on Twitter)

Yep, like conservative fullbacks. Centre-backs who move wide, can carry the ball, sometimes overlap. Now, it’s fair to say Gabriel isn’t as good a fit for those roles. So if the two outside centre-backs have to be able to play fullback because that’s where they’ll end up a lot of the time, you’re left with a choice between Gabriel and Saliba. Arteta has opted for the calmer defender and the player more comfortable on the ball so far.

He could play the wider role but Saliba isn’t a fullback, you don’t want him taken away from the middle of the pitch, caught upfield or out wide when we turn the ball over and he’s too far away to do something incredible like race André Ayew and make a tackle to keep the game at 0-0 on Monday.

author

Arsenal on Instagram: “William Saliba.”

August 22, 2023

But why couldn’t Arsenal drop Partey and have Ben White and Saliba shift over?

I think it’s because Arteta wants to exert more control in games where we’re the favourites and because too much change can be a bad thing.

The first part: Arsenal are controlling games (by which I mean controlling the ball, and controlling it further upfield) more so far this season.

Against Forest we had 902 touches, more than in any Premier League game in 2022/23. Against Palace we completed 88% of our passes when it was 11v11, higher than in any full Premier League game last season, and despite playing half an hour with 10 men we had more final third touches (198) than in 13 of our 19 away games from 2022/23.

By playing Thomas Partey ‘at right-back’, we are getting an extra midfielder on the pitch to help us:

1. Push more players upfield.

2. Bed our new midfielders in.

Number one: Against Forest (and a lesser extent Palace) we looked to overwhelm the opposition defence with pure numbers, with Declan Rice joining the attack, with six or seven players across the frontline, not four or five.

Number two: Changing the midfield three from Ødegaard, Partey, Xhaka to Ødegaard, Rice, Havertz is a lot all at once. It’s a hell of a lot without Zinchenko, who usually tucks into midfield from left-back. So Partey is in the team, sort of doing the Zinchenko job (but as a player schooled in playing as a holding midfielder) from a fullback position.

I think Arteta is keen to play both Rice and Havertz as much as possible early on this season. When Manchester City sign players, they usually spend a lot of the opening months of the season on the bench as they get used to the demands of the manager. They’ll learn quicker by being on the pitch and some of the risk that carries is mitigated by having them share the pitch with two of last season’s midfield three.

If Partey is on the pitch as training wheels for the midfield (as well as being able to play the role, of course, though not as smoothly as we’d like) then someone has to miss out and that someone is Gabriel or Saliba, thanks to the roles the centre-backs are playing.

I don’t think Gabriel’s absence from the XI will last long, especially as we get into the season and we rotate. And especially as Zinchenko returns to the side. With Timber and Tomiyasu both out of next Saturday’s game against Fulham, bringing Gabriel back in makes a lot of sense. He defends the wide areas superbly when Zinchenko wanders into midfield and ball progression (or offering an option on the left) will not be too much of an issue with the Ukrainian outside him.

The tweaks to the system — new shapes, shapes we saw last season, both of the above but mirrored — will continue, I suspect Partey ‘at right-back’ (from right-back) will continue at times, I suspect Gabriel will play more when Zinchenko plays. But everyone will get a bit more of a rest and we’ll be less predictable for the opposition at the same time. We’ll be harder to plan for and we’ll look to control games better and further from our own penalty area.

This team is progressing, it’s progressing quickly, and, well …