Data, Osimhen, and if Arsenal should sell Balogun

I was happy to sell, then I started writing this, now I don't know

I initially wanted to look at which other players, 23 or younger, have delivered similar output in a Ligue 1 season so that I could see what they’ve gone on to do and try to have a stab at a market value for Balogun this summer.

I ended up convincing myself that selling him is not necessarily what Arsenal should be doing and that, for the sake of long-term gain, it might be worth getting him into the first team next season. Maybe …

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If anything, they’ve probably loaned him out too well.

If Folarin Balogun was loaned out to Reims with Arsenal looking at selling him this summer, the spell in France could not have gone better. If he was loaned out to develop so Arsenal could use him moving forward, there are probably staff members at London Colney quietly wishing he had scored a little less often.

Now, with two years left on his contract, the striker wants regular playing time at the very top and there are clubs ready to offer it to him. Maybe the goals mean Arsenal should give him a shot to battle with Gabriel Jesus for the number nine role but that feels like a huge leap that could backfire. The goal tally obviously gets fans excited but doing it for Reims in Ligue 1 compared to doing it for Arsenal in the Premier League? After all, Alexandre Lacazette looks prolific again right now. It’s a huge leap between the two leagues.

Arsenal have been burned by the Ligue 1 fire before and the signings of Lacazette and Nicolas Pépé will have left a mark when it comes to judging how players get on in the French top flight. Those should also serve as a constant reminder to leave goals scored from the penalty spot out of theses discussions. Lacazette’s final season before joining Arsenal saw him score 28 league goals but 10 were from the spot. Likewise, Pépé enjoyed a 22-goal season to convince Arsenal to make him the club’s record signing (as Lacazette had been) but nine of those were penalties.

You never know if you’ll even get any penalties and when you do only one player can take them. It doesn’t make sense to include them when judging a player’s output. More on that later.

The Pépé transfer should also serve as a reminder about taking the style of a team into account. Lille were a counter-attacking side back then when he shone for them before joining Arsenal and Reims this season lean that way to an extreme extent.

The graph below is from The Analyst and compares team styles. It’s Ligue 1 this season but I’ve added Leeds, the team with Premier League’s most direct attack, to show how extreme Reims’ style is, and also added Arsenal to show how wildly Balogun’s current club plays compared to his parent club.

Clearly, the team styles in possession don’t match. Even if you ignore the fact the leagues are different, we just cannot see a player scoring goals for Reims and assume they’ll score goals for Arsenal.

That doesn’t mean he couldn’t fit but it does mean we have to assess him differently.

I’m not going to bother assessing Balogun’s strengths and weaknesses too deeply — Ashwin Raman (for The Analyst) and Peter Munnelly (for Scouted Football) have already done that better than I could and I recommend you read their work — but it is clear he has good movement, an ability to create shots for himself, presses well, and is both quick and strong.

It seems his technical ability can let him down, which he can make up for playing for a counter-attacking team in France, where he often has the space, speed and strength to retain the ball regardless of his control but that would be much trickier in a possession team in England.

On the other hand, as Ashwin points out, Balogun creates plenty of his shots for himself, a skill that could very usefully translate to playing for a better team.

There are also some similarities between Arsenal and Reims. Both teams create lots of shots from high turnovers and Arsenal also have plenty of direct attacks, something Reims excel at that helps get the most out of Balogun, even if the Gunners are more likely to calmly keep possession and build from the back.

You do worry about Balogun’s ability on the ball, the loose touches and the link-up play, given Arteta demands that his striker drops into midfield, or drifts wide, and knits play together.

But, with Erling Haaland at Manchester City being an incredibly extreme example, sometimes maybe you just have to be willing to sacrifice some of those other things for pure output.

So is Balogun delivering the sort of output that could make it all worth it to build an attack around him a couple of years from now? Or, if not, what sort of fee does a player with his level of output usually fetch?

With those questions, but mostly the second one, in mind, I decided to take a look at Balogun’s numbers in front of goal and dug through the last five years of Ligue 1 data.

First off, I decided to remove all penalties, like I said above. Five of Balogun’s 18 league goals this season have come from the spot and Arsenal have danced this dance with players in Ligue 1 before. If Balogun returned to Arsenal and forced his way into the team, there is no guarantee he would even be the penalty taker. We tear them out.

And we are left with …

• Shots/90 - 3.54

• NPxG/90 - 0.65

• NP Goals/90 - 0.51

Good numbers. A lot of shots — though this may be because he shoots from unlikely positions a bit too often it’s still a good sign — and very solid expected goals numbers.

So I looked over the last five seasons of Ligue 1 numbers and I realised how good these numbers really are. Ignoring players who play for PSG for obvious reasons, since the start of 2018/19, only four other players 23 or under (with at least 1000 minutes played) have managed a Ligue 1 campaign with at least 3 shots, 0.4 NPxG, 0.4 goals per 90 minutes.

• 18/19: Maxwell Cornet, Lyon: 3.32 shots - 0.53 xG - 0.49 goals

• 19/20: Victor Osimhen, Lille: 3.38 shots - 0.52 xG - 0.43 goals

• 22/23: Jonathan David, Lille: 3.17 shots, 0.48 xG - 0.47 goals

• 22/23: Lois Openda, Lens: 3.52 shots - 0.64 xG - 0.72 goals

That’s it. The other two from this season are both already 23, Balogun is 21. As for Cornet’s campaign, he made over half of his league appearances for Lyon in that season as a sub, coming on against tired legs.

So my experiment failed. I wanted to see what the value of a player doing this in Ligue 1 might most realistically be and it turns out … nobody has really done this. The only player who has is now exploding; Victor Osimhen is likely to attract attention from the world’s biggest clubs this summer and Napoli will demand north of €100m if anyone wants to sign him.

Back when he delivered his breakout Ligue 1 campaign with Lille at the age of 21, Napoli were convinced enough to pay a reported €70m for the striker now firing them to the Scudetto.

The question I set out to answer here — Should Arsenal keep Balogun and how much should they sell him for if not? — is a lot harder now.

You cannot just assume Balogun will continue to develop the way Osimhen has, that would be foolish. For every impressive young career that blossoms into an Osimhen, there is one that becomes Maxwell Cornet. No offence but you get what I mean.

The prospect of an Osimhen coming out of the academy, though, is so enticing. And so cheap compared to what finding one on the transfer market would cost.

You cannot rule it out and clearly putting up the numbers Balogun is putting up in a top league at that age is not something to be brushed off. It’s also probably not something to value at just €45m, which is the price Sky Germany suggested Arsenal wanted when, earlier this week, they revealed RB Leipzig’s strong interest.

Can Balogun improve enough to become Arsenal’s first choice striker? Are inconsistent technique and lack of link-up play things he could improve on enough to reach the level we want? Or are those limitations always likely to hold him back from reaching the absolute pinnacle?

And should Arsenal — a team ready to compete right now — roll the dice on giving a a player who needs to develop the playing time he wants just so they don’t lose him? Or can they eek upwards of €50m out of someone (perhaps Napoli need an Osimhen replacement this summer?) to make selling him worthwhile?

I don’t envy Edu having to make those decisions, or lead those negotiations, this summer.